Commentary: A Southern Victory at Gettysburg

A gentleman from England who had a short time ago toured the Battlefields at Gettysburg sent me a question. It read in part, “Our guide on the tour gave us a talk on the build up to the civil war and talked about what might have happened. Simply put he pointed out that if the confederates had won at Gettysburg they might have forced Lincoln to sue for peace and there would have been two Americas, USA AND CSA. Supposing that had happened. How do the think these two countries would have developed. I have heard the point of view that they would have inevitably drifted back together again. Others say that in a way the war is still going on and therefore they would have stayed apart.”

Honestly, I find the answering of "what if" questions difficult primarily because I do not believe anyone can provide an adequate answer. To attempt such, one must decide which of the infinite number of factors which had contributed to the original outcome would remain constant and which would change in an expected or defined manner. Millennia of efforts have failed to develop a reliable strategy for predicting the actions of one person over short periods of time in somewhat controlled situations. How much more complicated then would we find the task of predicting the outcome of events with an entire country at war?

The danger with choosing the factors on which to focus stems in part from the temptation to selectively emphasize those that, even subtly, support preconceived views and biases. Even when assuming some measure of objectivity, too many questions vie for priority on the list of considerations to permit accurate forecasting. First, if you accept the necessity of a Southern victory at the Battle of Gettysburg to winning Southern independence, a point debatable on its own, the question remains whether or not it would have proven sufficient. Yet even with this somewhat basic question, the pitfalls emerge. I find unrealistic the assumption that casualty figures would have remained the same if the outcome of the Battle of Gettysburg differed. After General Robert E. Lee took command of the Army of Northern Virginia, he had several major strategic victories where he took the offensive. However, the Southern casualty figures tended to be higher in either number or percentage than the Federals with each costly success. The Sevens Days and Chancellorsville, where he repeatedly assumed the aggressive, serve as prime examples.

More questions emerge. Would a victory at Gettysburg then have allowed for a sufficient number of Southern commanders remaining to permit the Confederate government to successfully prosecute the war? Such hypotheticals proposed prior to the Battle of Chancellorsville would doubtfully have included the possibility of General Thomas J. Jackson's death. Likewise, when considering similar questions for Gettysburg, how many would include in the discussion the possible death of James Longstreet, JEB Stuart, or even General Lee as they followed up their success?

If Lee had won at Gettysburg, would Longstreet's detachment have gone on to support General Braxton Bragg and contribute to the Confederate victory at Chickamauga or would Lee have decided that he needed Old Pete to follow up his recent success? If Longstreet remained with the Army of Northern Virginia and Union General William S. Rosecranz at least did not suffer defeat at Chickamauga, would the following siege at Chattanooga have occurred? If not, would the lack of an opportunity for Ulysses S. Grant to raze the siege have meant that President Lincoln would not have opted to elevated him to General in Chief? Would Lincoln have moved Grant north to confront Lee without this promotion? Would William T. Sherman still have waged his lethal March to the Sea if instead General Rosecranz moved into Georgia after a Union victory or even a stalemate at Chickamauga?

If the Confederates had won at Gettysburg, would European powers have intervened or had the Union’s narrow victory at Antietam significantly diminished that likelihood? Would the Union victory at Vicksburg, and perhaps Chickamauga if Longstreet was not with Braxton Bragg, have held England and France at bay?

With a Union loss at Gettysburg, would the possible cries for General George B. McClellan have returned him again to the Eastern Theater and if so, would he have then still run for president in 1864? If not, would the Democratic party have chosen another candidate who could have more clearly defined a unified Democratic platform? If so, could that person have defeated Lincoln especially given the potential decline in Northern morale with a loss at Gettysburg?

If the south appeared on the verge of winning, would other northern states have seceded and formed their own Union as some had threatened? With a Southern victory, would foreign powers have invested in a devastated Confederacy allowing the necessary degree of reconstruction for an expeditious re-birth? Would the Northern businesses have again eagerly imported Southern cotton, reviving the devastated economy while rekindling the need for slave labor? Would the south have moved on to conquer or purchase Cuba and other land south of the existing borders in order to perpetuate slavery? Would they have then clashed again with the North for the remaining territories to continue to acquire land with a cotton friendly climate?

If Lincoln won re-election despite the hypothesized Southern successes, would John Wilkes Booth have played the role of assassin? If not, what would the impact of a still determined Lincoln have had on the war effort?

Then we consider the question of black Americans, both freed and still in bondage. They certainly would not have become passive actors in this postulated play. Even if the Confederates emerged from the conflict victorious, would enough white men have survived the war to sustain the institution of slavery? University of Virginia Professor Dr. Gary Gallagher has argued that the relationship between slave and master changed significantly as the war progressed due to the absence of white men to manage the plantations. Would those slaves who remained in bondage but assumed greater degrees of authority have acquiesced to the loss of their new found power, limited as it was? What actions would the veteran United States Colored Troops, over 100,000 strong, have taken after their mustering out of the Army should the South have won?

Obviously, this could continue indefinitely but would serve no useful purpose except to perhaps continue to evade drawing hypothetical conclusions. Those offered would draw critical responses based on those factors on which the critic chose to focus. Debate still rages about the impact of specific tactical decisions made or not made during the battle itself. Given the lack of agreement on events of a much smaller scale, the potential results of a Confederate victory during the Battle of Gettysburg will likely continue to elude us all.

Sincerely,

Randy

Please visit my primary site at www.brotherswar.com

All original material Copyright © 2006. All Rights Reserved

Antietam's Fleeting Stain

With sadness, I read the news that the Ku Klux Klan received approval to march on the hallowed grounds of the Antietam National Battlefield. Some will understandably say that these hooded men and their message must be challenged. On the same fields where so many died for their beliefs, we could do no less. Others will plead that we ignore their display to deprive them of the publicity they so desperately seek. Lacking the desired conflict and confrontations needed to attract and recruit others, their numbers will fall and their mission fail.

I say that I am saddened by the presence of a group so inextricably linked to hatred and by the coming act which detracts from the focus of those beautiful, sacred grounds. On September 17, 1862, thousands of men lost their lives as our country struggled to save its immortal soul. Countless more emerged from the fog of battle no longer whole in mind and body. The fields of Antietam serve to remind us of their desperate sacrifice and our storied heritage. This offensive stain, while mercifully fleeting, does neither the veterans of that field nor our shared history the justice they have both earned and deserve.

For more information, please click here.

Sincerely,

Randy

Please visit my primary site at www.brotherswar.com

All original material Copyright © 2006. All Rights Reserved

Antietam - Gods and Generals Cut Scene

About one year ago when I started this blog, I included a plea to anyone who may know how I might obtain a copy of the Director's Cut of the movie "Gettysburg". Having seen the entire uncut film several times, I can honestly say the extended version is both powerful and moving, even more so than the version released to the general public.

Like its cousin, the movie "Gods and Generals" also received its fair share of edits. Below I have posted a link to a clip of the fighting at Antietam which, although filmed for the movie, did not make the theatrical version released a few years ago. The movie had received a fair amount of criticism for what some viewed as its overly romantic flair. This clip available at the link below, if left in the movie, perhaps would have forestalled such talk.

If prompted to download a plug-in, you must proceed at your own risk since I cannot vouch for the safety of any downloads. Also, due to the clips small size you may wish to double its size by clicking on the "2X" that appears when you place your mouse on the viewing screen. You must have RealPlayer to play this clip.

If anyone knows where or how I can obtain a copy of either the Director's Cut of "Gettysburg" or Gods and Generals", I would be forever grateful for such information. You can e-mail me by clicking on the link in the right hand panel of this page.

This clip may not be appropriate for young children.

Gods and Generals: Antietam

Sincerely,

Randy

Please visit my primary site at www.brotherswar.com

All original material Copyright © 2006. All Rights Reserved

Tredegar Iron Works

A trip to Richmond, Virginia last year gave witness to one of the wonders of the Confederacy. Tredegar Iron Works, situated along the James River and now the home to the National Park Service Visitor's Center, turned out about 1,000 cannon during the war, nearly half of that produced in the south. I've included a few pictures below. If you are interested, the National Park Service has a nice, brief summary of the role played by Tredegar on their web site at Tredegar Iron Works: An Introduction.

In a few of the pictures, I edited out signs or other modern intrusions. Enjoy.












Sincerely,

Randy

Please visit my primary site at www.brotherswar.com

All original material Copyright © 2006. All Rights Reserved

More Opposition to Proposed Gettysburg Casino

This article speaks for itself.

"Trust's Report Assails Casino Application"

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Update: April 19, 2006

I re-checked the above link today and noticed the link is now broken. Since the Evening Sun apparently does not archive their articles for more than a few weeks, I have included below a copy of the article from the Civil War Preservation Trust web site.

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"For Immediate Release: 4/4/2006
Contact: Jim Campi, 202-367-1861
NEW GETTYSBURG CASINO STUDY REVEALS SERIOUS PROBLEMS IN CHANCE IMPACT REPORT

Independent report finds that a Gettysburg slots parlor poses risk to hundreds of local businesses

Gettysburg, Pa. - The Civil War Preservation Trust (CWPT) today released an independent report on the impact of a large casino on Gettysburg and the surrounding region. The report, entitled The Impact of a Large Casino on the Gettysburg Area – A Realistic Assessment, found that Chance Enterprises, the investment group behind the proposed Gettysburg Gaming Resort and Spa (renamed Crossroads Gaming Resort and Spa to obscure its location just one mile from the battlefield), greatly exaggerates the benefits their venture would bring to the community and ignores the serious negative consequences to existing businesses and the battlefield.

“We have long suspected that Chance Enterprises was vastly overstating the benefits of a Gettysburg slots parlor,” observed CWPT President James Lighthizer. “Now we have the facts to support that view. The new report confirms that a casino in Gettysburg is not just bad for history, it is also bad business.”

Most of Chance’s claims were first made public in the group’s local impact report (LIR), a formal piece of their legally required application released in December 2005. Mr. Michael Siegel, the author of A Realistic Assessment, found the Chance LIR to be unreliable and misleading in several critical aspects. Siegel, the principal of Public and Environmental Finance Associates, is a 28-year veteran in the field of public and environmental finance and impact analysis. Based on his analysis of the LIR, Siegel concludes, “It would be difficult to find an area in Pennsylvania that is more vulnerable to the adverse effect of a large casino. The Gettysburg area’s economy is too large to escape the proposed casino’s adverse impacts, but not nearly large enough for them to be of relatively little consequence.”

VICKSBURG’S POST CASINO EXPERIENCE: THE MODEL FOR GETTYSBURG?

Chance’s LIR relies in large part on Vicksburg as a model of how its casino would affect Gettysburg and the surrounding area. One of Chance’s key assertions is that visitation to Vicksburg National Military Park (NMP) was unaffected by the introduction of gambling to the area. This is not the case. In 1994, the first full calendar year after the opening of Vicksburg’s first casinos, visitation to Vicksburg NMP fell 21 percent. Through 2004 there were only two years when visitation to the park equaled or slightly exceeded the 1993 level, when gambling first came to town. In the five years previous to the casinos’ introduction, Vicksburg’s visitation had been growing an average of five percent per year.

In contrast, visitation to Gettysburg National Military Park has increased by 21 percent over the same time period. Given the importance of tourists to Adams County and the Borough of Gettysburg, this misleading portrayal of Vicksburg’s visitation numbers is of utmost concern. As the Realistic Assessment notes, “people’s wallets usually accompany them.”

The LIR’s economic analysis is based on the odd proposition that if it omits spending by existing visitors and residents at the casino in its calculations, then none of Gettysburg’s existing business will be hurt when this money goes elsewhere. As the Realistic Assessment points out, this poses a real and serious adverse impact to the Gettysburg area. In Warren County (Vicksburg), Mississippi, nonmanufacturing wage and salary employment fell by several hundred jobs following the opening of its four casinos. Not only did these casinos fail to generate a single net new nonmanufacturing wage job outside the gambling establishments themselves, they may have actually destroyed such jobs. Together with the Vicksburg Battlefield’s visitation data, this strongly suggests that tens of millions of dollars of economic activity was transferred and diverted from existing Vicksburg-area businesses to its casinos.

Chance also uses Vicksburg for its assertion that the proposed casino would have no adverse social impacts. In reality, the crime rate in Warren County, Mississippi after the introduction of casinos, increased at a far greater rate than it did in Mississippi overall. While Warren County’s crime rate was soaring, the national crime rate was also falling.

MORE MISREPRESENTATIONS IN THE LIR

A Realistic Assessment details numerous other serious deficiencies in the Chance LIR. Among them:

Damage to Existing Businesses: The Chance LIR fails to address the damage the casino will cause to existing businesses by the diversion and transfer of local resident and existing visitor expenditures to the casino. Siegel’s report roughly estimates that about $60 million of spending by existing visitors and residents would be diverted and transferred from existing establishments to the proposed casino. This represents a sizable share of Adams County’s service and retail sector spending..

Job Creation and Overnight Stays: The LIR assumes half a million or more new overnight visitors who cannot be reasonably accounted for. The level of overnight stays presumed by the report is only achieved by two mega-resort gambling destinations: Las Vegas and Atlantic City. Reputable industry studies indicate that no more than between four and eight percent of the casino’s visitors from within two hours drive time will stay overnight in Adams County. In Charles Town, W.V. (home to a similarly sized slots facility) only about five percent do so.

Failure to Fully Consider Competitive Disadvantages: A Gettysburg casino would have a disadvantaged location relative to the three other casinos it will have to compete with for market share. The three competitors are within a two-hour drive from Gettysburg. As the Realistic Assessment points out, drive times to Gettysburg from the large population centers in the Washington–Baltimore area are significantly longer than to other competing casinos. A University of Massachusetts study on visitation patterns to the Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun casinos in Connecticut found that a 10–15-minute travel difference caused three to four times as many Rhode Islanders to pick the closer location. Because Chance omits key data and assumptions about its market study, it does not appear that they have given proper consideration to this effect.

Tourism to Gettysburg: With approximately 1.7 million visitors annually, Gettysburg is one of the top overall tourist destinations in Pennsylvania. Its location makes it a gateway to visitors from across the nation. Locating a casino in Gettysburg amounts to brand pollution and will have negative consequences for Pennsylvania that will not be confined to the Gettysburg area. Leisure tourism is Pennsylvania’s second-largest industry, and heritage tourists tend to be the biggest spenders among leisure visitors.

With findings this dramatic on these and related topics, the Realistic Assessment should be carefully read and considered by those seeking to fully understand the potential impacts that a casino would have on the region, according to Rodney Cromeans of the coalition Businesses Against the Casino in Adams County. Believing that the information presented in the Realistic Assessment is a vital part of the dialogue and must be fully heard, Businesses Against the Casino has invited its author to present his findings on the organization’s behalf during the Gaming Control Board’s public hearings. “The data in this report are crucial for a full understanding of the issues at stake with this casino. As a Gettysburg businessman, I can truly relate to what these numbers mean for my bottom line,” Cromeans said.

With 75,000 members, CWPT is the largest nonprofit battlefield preservation organization in the United States. Its mission is to preserve our nation’s remaining Civil War battlefields. Since 1987, the organization has saved more than 22,300 acres of hallowed ground, including 591 acres at Gettysburg. Most recently, CWPT partnered with the Gettysburg Battlefield Preservation Association to protect the Daniel Lady Farm at Gettysburg. CWPT’s website is located at www.civilwar.org.

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(A copy of A Realistic Assessment is available online at http://www.civilwar.org/news/realistic_assessment.pdf )"

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Sincerely,

Randy

Please visit my primary site at www.brotherswar.com

All original material Copyright © 2006. All Rights Reserved

About the Trees

This last Wednesday, I found myself once again happily tramping across the fields of the Gettysburg Battlefield, eager to see the National Park Service’s most recent restorative efforts. Their unrelenting determination continuously moves the park’s sacred grounds towards their 1863 appearance. Having read of the most recent works, I enthusiastically moved from Seminary Ridge towards a particular point of interest. The Peach Orchard, for years reliably home to a small collection of fruit trees, revealed the most dramatic changes. The fields, meticulously plowed and tilled, now housed not one tree.


Monument to the 68th Pennsylvania Infantry
framed by the now empty Peach Orchard
Captivated by the vegetative vacuum, I walked slowly around the edges of the barren field, careful to avoid stepping on what seemed a still tender portion of the now wounded battlefield. With anticipatory delight, each step inspired visions of how these same grounds would appear just two years hence when fresh, healthy trees reached again towards the sun. Strong, healthy peach trees would soon proudly take the place of those which had so steadily adorned these fields for decades. Camera in hand, I snapped as many pictures from as many angles as the evasive, cloud shrouded sunlight would allow. After collecting a sufficient number of photos, I walked back towards my car expecting no further surprises.

Then I walked out onto the Emmitsburg Road. Stopping to investigate an old isolated marble obelisk, I took the time to read the fading inscription worn by a century of snow, wind, and rain. The sounds of the highway behind me, the bite of the still chilling spring winds, and the visions of the surrounding fields melted away. The marble carved words held my complete attention.

ERECTED BY THE SURVIVORS
OF THE 68TH REGT. P. V.
SCOTT LEGION
COL. A. H. TIPPIN COMMANDING
1ST BRIGADE 1ST DIVISION
3RD ARMY CORPS
IN MEMORY OF
183 OF OUR COMRADES
WHO FELL ON THIS FIELD
JULY 2ND AND 3RD 1863.
This silent stone sentry spoke clearly of what I should have known all along. I came here to see the restorations as the grounds steadily regressed to their condition 142 years past. But neither the stark changes to the landscape nor the crisp, nurtured beauty of the battlefield could ease the gut wrenching feeling produced by a few small words. The inscription said, “183 of our Comrades”. The men of this battle still spoke. They say to those who would pause to listen, “It never was about the trees“.

Sincerely,

Randy

Please visit my primary site at www.brotherswar.com

All original material Copyright © 2006. All Rights Reserved

The Gettysburg Casino Hearings

On Wednesday, April 5, I had the privilege of testifying at the initial Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board hearing concerning the proposal to build a casino near the Gettysburg Battlefield. I left feeling cautiously upbeat after hearing a majority of presenters express their displeasure with the idea. Twenty-four hours later, that day's optimism became tainted with dismay as I both read and heard how the news media portrayed the proceedings. The straightforward hearing format allowed those seeking the casino license to testify first, followed by governmental officials, non-profit and private organizations, followed by individual citizens. I witnessed the entire hearing, took pages of notes, and heard each presenter.

Chance Enterprises and their CEO David Levan spoke first, stating their position that the casino would benefit the local economy, would not negatively impact the battlefield, and would not rest on any "hallowed ground". When they finished, various governmental representatives spoke with the numbers for and against the proposal about evenly distributed. The private and non-profit groups spoke next, all of whom voiced their strenuous objections to the proposal with the noted exception of the Gettysburg Battlefield Preservation Association. My surprise at their declaration of support faded somewhat as I heard talk that they allegedly had received significant contributions from Mr. Levan.

Of the 33 individuals who spoke, all area residents except two, 29 stated their opposition including a descendent of the family of Major General John Fulton Reynolds and one of Miles Standish. Groups who sent representative to this hearing who also objected to the proposal included:

The Friends of the National Parks at Gettysburg
Concerned Citizens of Straban Township
No Casino Gettysburg
Gettysburg College Parents Advisory Board
The Civil War Club of Gettysburg College
Gettysburg College Faculty

The gentleman who spoke for the Gettysburg College Parents Advisory Board, currently numbering 62 parents, emphasized that the vote against the casino was not just by majority but unanimous.

Despite the above, thus far, both televised and print media concerning this hearing seem to imply or represent that those testifying presented an equivalent number of positions both in opposition and in support. I have seen no mention of the 60,000+ petition signatures offered by the Civil War Preservation Trust and the group No Casino Gettysburg which publicly document both local and national opposition. In the reports I have seen, the print and broadcast media mentioned views in support of the casino prior to noting any specific objections, if they noted any at all. At the risk of painting myself with cynicism, I can only guess that these media outlets, all local to Pennsylvania, seek the advertising revenue a casino might offer.

As for my testimony, below I include a copy of the text from which I read excluding the specific contact information I provided to the Board.

"I was born, raised, and still live in Pennsylvania. I visit Gettysburg frequently, have friends here, and had family who fought here.

On June 28, 1865, Union Major General George Gordon Meade said farewell to the Army of the Potomac. A man of comparatively few words, he would say to the survivors of this war, "It is unnecessary to enumerate here all that has occurred in these two eventful years, from the grand and decisive Battle of Gettysburg, the turning point of the war, to the surrender of the Army of Northern Virginia at Appomattox Court House. Suffice it to say that history will do you justice, a grateful country will honor the living, cherish and support the disabled, and sincerely mourn the dead."

It pains me to consider that this country may not be as grateful as it once was. Today we debate this plan by a few to exploit the name and sacrifice of Gettysburg for their own ends. Those who seek to build this casino would not do so at such a cherished site but for the millions who travel to Gettysburg every year to remember the men and women who gave so much for this country. A casino so close to the battlefield, the sacred grounds where our ancestors decided the fate of this nation, seeks only to profit from those who journey here to ponder and remember.

I wish now to state in the strongest possible terms that this cannot, this must not happen. The casino, if it sees the light of day, will scar the very fields we seek to protect.

But even without the increase in crime and costs to the community, building a casino near this battlefield remains as unconscionable a decision as building an amusement park at Pearl Harbor. The men who died here and their descendents deserve far better.

The great state of Pennsylvania along with people from all over this country will soon join in celebrating the 150th anniversary of the Battle of Gettysburg. We will proudly remember that, on those three fateful days, tens of thousands of Americans, including 35,000 Pennsylvanians, saved our nation. I say to you today, do not soil their memory by allowing this blatant exploitation of their sacrifice. We owe them. In those three days, thousands of men gave their lives that this nation, our nation, might live. Tens of thousands of others emerged from this conflict broken and shattered, their bodies no longer whole, their legacy forever written in blood in the book of honor.

Ladies and gentlemen of this board, how will we repay these men? Who speaks for the dead of Gettysburg?"

Sincerely,

Randy

Please visit my primary site at www.brotherswar.com

All original material Copyright © 2006. All Rights Reserved